Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will DeepSeek's valuation exceed $10B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if DeepSeek's reported valuation is at or above $10 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will ElevenLabs' valuation exceed $5B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if ElevenLabs' post-money valuation is at or above $5 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will OpenAI's valuation exceed $500B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if OpenAI's post-money valuation (most recent funding round or tender offer) is at or above $500 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will Anthropic's valuation exceed $200B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if Anthropic's post-money valuation is at or above $200 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will xAI's valuation exceed $200B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if xAI's post-money valuation is at or above $200 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will Mistral AI's valuation exceed $15B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if Mistral AI's post-money valuation is at or above $15 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will Perplexity's valuation exceed $20B by Jan 1, 2026?
Resolves YES if Perplexity's post-money valuation is at or above $20 billion on January 1, 2026.
Valuation is determined by the most recent confirmed funding round or credible secondary-market report as of Jan 1, 2026. Unconfirmed rumors or speculative media estimates do not count.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 0 RAI
companies
Will Uncensored AI's valuation exceed $100M by Jan 1, 2026?
Over/Under $100M valuation for Uncensored AI as of January 1, 2026.
UnitUSD valuation
SourcePublic funding announcements
Resolves YES if valuation is over $100M, NO if under.
YES 50%NO 50%
Closed · Pool 200 RAI
infrastructure
Will a top-5 inference provider have a 1h+ outage this month?
Status-page surveillance market.
YES 77%NO 23%
Closed · Pool 5300 RAI
models
Will Claude be #1 on the RAI leaderboard by July 2026?
Anthropic vs OpenAI: who holds the crown at midyear?
YES 64%NO 36%
Closed · Pool 5000 RAI
models
Will an open-source model overtake GPT-5 on coding RAI this quarter?